Less Migration, More Problems: Australia's Own Numbers Show Why Workers Are Still Needed

News · 2026-09-22 · 4 min read

In Australia, migration is a hot political topic right now. Some people want the intake made smaller. But the government's own long-range economic forecasts point in the other direction. They suggest that taking fewer migrants would not fix problems. It would make bigger ones.

If you are an Indonesian worker thinking about work in Australia from Indonesia, this is useful background. Here is the story in simple terms.

Australia has fewer babies than it needs

To keep a population stable, each woman needs to have about 2.1 children on average. This is called the "replacement" level. Australia has been under that level for half a century.

The rate is now close to 1.5. Official forecasts say it may drop again, to about 1.34, during the next four decades. This leads to a big moment. Around the mid-2060s, Australia is expected to record more deaths than births. That has never happened before in its modern history.

Some earlier governments tried to pay families to have more children, with "baby bonus" type payments. The current Treasurer has clearly said no to this. He also will not tell Australians how to plan their families. So the main tool left to grow the population and the workforce is migration.

More retirees, fewer workers to pay for them

This is not really a debate about ideas. It is a question of simple maths. As people get older, fewer people of working age are paying tax. At the same time, more retired people need hospitals, pensions and aged care.

Experts measure this with the "dependency ratio". It counts how many people aged 65+ there are for every 100 Australians of working age. Today the figure is about 27 per 100. With normal migration settings, it is expected to rise to 40 by the 2060s. With a smaller migration intake, it goes even higher, to 43 per 100.

How a smaller intake hurts the budget

When fewer workers support more retirees, services feel the pressure. But the federal budget also takes a direct hit. The government's long-term fiscal modelling looks at a lower-migration scenario. In that case:

The underlying budget deficit grows from 1.8% of GDP, which is already a worry, to 2.4% by 2065-66.
Government debt, measured as a share of GDP, ends up nearly 10 percentage points higher.

So critics talk about the "cost" of migrants. Yet the long-term cost of not having enough migrants is much larger.

Why employers and job seekers should pay attention

This modelling is not only for Treasury experts. Migration agents, employers and people hoping to move to Australia can learn from it too. It shows the long-term direction of policy, even when politicians make a lot of short-term noise.

Skilled migration is a national economic need, not an optional extra. Treasury's own basic planning expects net overseas migration of well over 200,000 people each year. This level is needed just to stop the budget getting worse.
Migrants do more than fill empty jobs. They help hold the whole system up. Younger migrants of working age pay tax today. Meanwhile, older citizens use more services.
The government now links multiculturalism with its economic plans. Its language describes migration as a way to make the economy stronger, through skills, new ideas and links with other countries. It is not just about adding more people.

Our tips for Indonesian job seekers

Migration becomes an easy target at every election. But the government's own long-term modelling says something politicians may not like to hear. Cutting migration does not reduce pressure on the budget or on public services. It actually makes the ageing problem arrive faster.

For agents, employers and future applicants, the long-term picture is clear, whatever the politics of the day. Australia's economy needs steady, well-managed migration, not less of it. If you are looking for jobs in Australia for Indonesians, do not let loud headlines stop you. Keep your English-language CV up to date, and prepare for an English test such as IELTS or PTE if your visa or employer asks for one. Being ready early can make your next step much easier.

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