Australia Is Getting Older: Why Its Official Plan Needs Overseas Workers
News · 2026-09-22 · 4 min read
Australia has released its new Intergenerational Report, often called the IGR. Many news stories talk about debt and deficits. But there is a bigger message inside it. Australia is saying, quite openly, that it needs steady and planned migration to keep going. If you are thinking about work in Australia from Indonesia, this report helps you see why skilled newcomers are part of the country's future.
Fewer births, an older nation
Here is the main problem. By the 2060s, Australia expects more deaths each year than births. This is not a guess from outside critics. It is part of the government's own long-range modelling.
For over half a century, fertility in Australia has been below replacement level. That means families are not having enough children to replace the people who pass away. The IGR has cut its estimate again. In 2023 it assumed 1.62 children per woman. Now it expects just 1.34 by 2065-66.
Countries such as Japan, Germany, Italy and South Korea already show what this can look like. Their economies are under strain because their populations are ageing. Australia is on a different track. Why? Because of net overseas migration. The report assumes 235,000 people arrive each year, every year, for the next four decades.
Simply put, this one number holds up the whole 40-year forecast. Take it away and the forecast does not work.
Young arrivals keep the workforce moving
One detail in the report is easy to miss. The typical (median) migrant who arrives is 26 years old. The typical resident already living in Australia is 38. So migration does more than raise the population. It is the strongest tool Australia has to slow down the ageing of its workers.
The report expects the working-age group (people aged 15–64) to keep growing. Without migrants, that growth would not happen. Australia is one of only a few rich countries that still expects its labour force to get bigger through the middle of this century. Migration does nearly all of that job.
Jobs in care are set to grow
The IGR clearly names a move toward a "care economy". This covers health, disability support (NDIS) and aged care. These areas will grow as the number of people over 65 almost doubles. The group over 85 will almost triple.
These sectors have long relied on migrant workers, from hands-on carers to the wider health workforce. If demand grows as the report expects, visa pathways for skilled and semi-skilled care jobs will likely become a central part of Australia's visa settings, not a side issue.
The good forecasts depend on the same number
The report also has some positive numbers. It expects the economy to double in size by 2065-66. It expects real incomes to be 55% higher. It expects unemployment to settle near 4.25%.
All of these depend on the same migration assumption. If the intake falls well below 235,000 a year, Australia would age faster than the report's comfortable projections assume. Health and aged care already stand out as big drivers of future government spending. With fewer working-age taxpayers to fund them, the pressure on these costs would come sooner and hit harder.
Politics could change the picture
There is a tension to keep an eye on. The IGR uses 235,000 NOM (net overseas migration) per year as its starting point. Yet both the Coalition and One Nation have campaigned to cut migration far below that level. So the government's economic modelling and the opposition's ideas point in opposite directions.
This matters to migration advisers, to employers who depend on skilled visa pathways, and to people planning to move. The key thing to watch is not the projected population of 39.3 million. It is whether the intake settings behind that projection can last through the next few election cycles.
The main message in plain words
Australia's official 40-year economic outlook is really a story about migration, with some economics added. The government does not hedge on this in the report. It says clearly that migration gives Australia "demographic resilience" that other ageing countries lack. The real question is not whether migration stays important. It is whether politicians will keep the intake levels the modelling depends on over the next few elections.
A practical takeaway for Indonesian workers
If you are looking for jobs in Australia for Indonesians, especially in care, health or other skilled work, this report is useful background. Start preparing early. Write a clear CV in English. Take an English test such as IELTS or PTE if your visa or employer asks for one. Get your Indonesian documents translated into English when the visa rules require it. Visa settings can change after elections, so always check the latest rules before you apply.
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